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What is risk exposure?
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How to identify risks in EVM?
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How to estimate risk impacts in EVM?
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How to calculate risk exposure in EVM?
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How to use risk exposure in EVM?
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Here’s what else to consider
EVM, or earned value management, is a method for measuring the performance and progress of a software project. It compares the actual work done, the planned work, and the budget to determine the project's status, schedule, and cost. But how can you account for the risks that may affect your project's outcome? In this article, you will learn how to calculate risk exposure in EVM, and how to use it to make better decisions for your project.
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- Giuseppe Sanero Independent IT Consultant | Top System Architecture Voice | Top Cybersecurity Voice | Top Software Project Management…
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- Petro Luzhnyi Senior Technical Project Manager @ SoftServe | Leading Complex Technical Projects
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1 What is risk exposure?
Risk exposure is the potential impact of a risk on your project's objectives. It is calculated by multiplying the probability of a risk occurring by the magnitude of its consequences. For example, if there is a 20% chance that a key feature will be delayed by two weeks, and that will cost you $10,000 in lost revenue, then the risk exposure is 0.2 x 10,000 = $2,000. Risk exposure helps you prioritize the risks that need more attention and mitigation.
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- Petro Luzhnyi Senior Technical Project Manager @ SoftServe | Leading Complex Technical Projects
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In my practice risks with higher explosure should be addressed first, as execution of mitigation plan can reveal other 'hidden' risks.
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- Aleksandr Skubin IT Project Manager | Project Manager | Agile, Software Project Management
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To calculate risk exposure in Earned Value Management (EVM), multiply the probability of a risk occurring by its potential impact on the project's cost or schedule. This results in a quantitative assessment of the potential loss associated with each risk. The formula for risk exposure is Risk Exposure = Probability of Risk * Impact of Risk. By quantifying risk exposure, project managers can prioritize risks for mitigation and allocate resources accordingly to minimize their impact on project outcomes.
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2 How to identify risks in EVM?
To calculate risk exposure in EVM, you need to identify the risks that may affect your project's scope, schedule, and cost. You can use various techniques to identify risks, such as brainstorming, interviewing, checklists, SWOT analysis, or historical data. You should document the risks in a risk register, along with their sources, categories, impacts, and probabilities. You should also assign a risk owner and a risk response strategy for each risk.
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- David Ansede Buján IT Product Owner | Project Management
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1.Identify: Analyze the potential risks that may affect your project in terms of scope, schedule, and costs2.Assess potential impacts: Evaluate how each identified risk could influence the project's performance, including possible deviations in forecasted costs, schedule changes, or impacts on scope3.Estimate the probabilities of occurrence: Assess the likelihood of each identified risk actually occurring during the course of the project4.Calculate risk exposure: This will provide you with a quantitative measure of the risk exposure for each identified risk5.Prioritize risks: Classify the risks based on their calculated risk exposure, allowing you to focus resources on the most critical or significant risks for the project's success
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3 How to estimate risk impacts in EVM?
To estimate the risk impacts in EVM, you need to quantify how each risk will affect your project's performance indicators, such as the planned value (PV), the earned value (EV), the actual cost (AC), the schedule variance (SV), the cost variance (CV), the schedule performance index (SPI), and the cost performance index (CPI). You can use different methods to estimate risk impacts, such as expert judgment, simulation, sensitivity analysis, or decision trees. You should express the risk impacts as ranges or distributions, rather than single values.
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4 How to calculate risk exposure in EVM?
To calculate risk exposure in EVM, you need to multiply the probability of each risk by its impact on each performance indicator. For example, if there is a 30% chance that a bug will cause a rework of 50 hours, and that will reduce your EV by $5,000 and increase your AC by $3,000, then the risk exposure on EV is 0.3 x 5,000 = $1,500, and the risk exposure on AC is 0.3 x 3,000 = $900. You should sum up the risk exposures for each performance indicator to get the total risk exposure for your project.
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5 How to use risk exposure in EVM?
To use risk exposure in EVM, you need to compare the total risk exposure with your project's baseline and contingency. The baseline is the original plan for your project's scope, schedule, and cost, and the contingency is the extra time and money that you have reserved for dealing with uncertainties. If your total risk exposure is lower than your contingency, then your project is on track and within budget. If your total risk exposure is higher than your contingency, then your project is at risk and over budget. You should use the risk exposure to adjust your project plan, communicate with stakeholders, and implement risk responses.
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- Giuseppe Sanero Independent IT Consultant | Top System Architecture Voice | Top Cybersecurity Voice | Top Software Project Management Voice | Top IT Consulting Voice
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Using risk exposure in earned value management (EVM) allows project managers to proactively assess and manage potential variances to project cost, schedule and performance.* By calculating risk exposure, you can identify areas of your project early that could cause future problems.* once potential problems are identified, corrective actions can be planned and implemented to mitigate risks.* Risk exposure analysis allows project managers to be more reactive and adaptive to project changes.* Using risk exposure data, project managers can communicate clearly and transparently with stakeholders about potential challenges.* after implementing corrective actions, it is important to constantly monitor the effectiveness of these measures.
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6 Here’s what else to consider
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- Petro Luzhnyi Senior Technical Project Manager @ SoftServe | Leading Complex Technical Projects
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It is really important to chose right risk responce strategy to manage project cost efficiently. Avoidance strategy is often the most expensive and should be chosen only if risk explosure is higher than management strategy cost whereas acceptance strategy works good only for risks with low explosure.
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