Stocks are in a bubble that will keep inflating until 2025 and push the market 30% higher, research firm says (2024)

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Stocks are in a bubble that will keep inflating until 2025 and push the market 30% higher, research firm says? ›

Stocks are in a bubble that will keep inflating until 2025 and push the market 30% higher, research firm says. The stock market is in a bubble, but that doesn't mean investors should sell their stocks right now. The S&P 500 still has 30% upside between now and the end of 2025, according to Capital Economics.

That suggests the S&P 500 could trade to 6,000 by August 2025, and to as high as 6,150 by November 2025. But in the short-term, amid the ongoing weakness in stocks, Suttmeier said investors should keep an eye on potential support levels for the S&P 500 at 5,000 as well as a range from 4,600 to 4,800.

Higher inflation typically drags down stocks as companies face higher wholesale prices to manufacture goods and consumers often are forced to spend more carefully. The S&P's price-to-earnings valuation is about 25% higher than it was in early 2020, when rates were below 2%.

Despite recent pullbacks, the S&P 500's performance has remained in the green since the start of 2024, extending its last year's rally fueled by a resilient US economy, expectations of rate cuts, and unprecedented expansion in the AI sector.

Stock market investors may be anxious, but as the old saying goes, "There's no need to panic." "While we maintain a positive view on the U.S. stock market in 2024, there are a range of risk factors that could derail the current bull market," Dilley says.

Rising inflation can be costly for consumers, stocks and the economy. Value stocks perform better in high inflation periods and growth stocks perform better when inflation is low. Stocks tend to be more volatile when inflation is elevated.

Rising costs and uncertain revenue growth can take a toll on corporate profit margins, and stock prices can fall in response. On a broader scale, high inflation creates unknowns about future interest rates. That uncertainty often contributes to market volatility.

An overall rise in prices over time reduces the purchasing power of consumers since a fixed amount of money will afford progressively less consumption. Consumers lose purchasing power regardless of what the inflation rate is—whether it's 2% or 4%. They simply lose it faster at the higher rate.

Where is the stock market headed in 2024? ›

As a whole, analysts are optimistic about the outlook for stock prices in 2024. The consensus analyst price target for the S&P 500 is 5,090, suggesting roughly 8.5% upside from current levels.

The Big Money bulls forecast that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will end 2024 at about 41,231, 9% higher than current levels. Market optimists had a mean forecast of 5461 for the S&P 500 and 17,143 for the Nasdaq Composite —up 9% and 10%, respectively, from where the indexes were trading on May 1.

Wall Street's high mark for stock market returns in 2024 keeps moving up. BMO Capital Markets chief investment strategist Brian Belski boosted his year-end price target for the S&P 500 (^GSPC) to 5,600 from 5,100 in a research note on Wednesday, noting that momentum in the market is "likely to persist."

It can be nerve-wracking to watch your portfolio consistently drop during bear market periods. After all, nobody likes losing money; that goes against the whole purpose of investing. However, pulling your money out of the stock market during down periods can often do more harm than good in the long term.

Investors might sell a stock if it's determined that other opportunities can earn a greater return. If an investor holds onto an underperforming stock or is lagging the overall market, it may be time to sell that stock and put the money to work in another investment.

"2024 is bound to be a better year for homebuyers, if only because of how terrible 2023 was," says John Graff, CEO at Ashby & Graff Real Estate. Graff anticipates falling interest rates and increasing inventory could result in more opportunities for homebuyers in the months ahead.

The S&P 500 still has 30% upside between now and the end of 2025, according to Capital Economics. "Our end-2025 forecast of 6,500 for the index is premised on its valuation reaching a similar level to its peak during the dot com mania," Capital Economics said.

Market rally to widen in 2024, according to Barclays

“Broadening has been modest and we think there's room for a lot more. Earnings growth is the most likely catalyst, in our view,” strategist Venu Krishna wrote in a Thursday note.

The Dow Jones is forecasted to trade in the 40,000-50,000 range during 2025 and continue the sideways movements in the next years. In five years from now, the agency forecasts Dow Jones to trade at around 50,000 points.

To some investors, this might seem unlikely. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, an index that has astonished with its ascent over the past decade, likely will continue to astonish through the 2020s, rising to 50,000 by 2027.