What causes bond funds to go up or down?
What causes bond prices to fall? Bond prices move in inverse fashion to interest rates, reflecting an important bond investing consideration known as interest rate risk. If bond yields decline, the value of bonds already on the market move higher. If bond yields rise, existing bonds lose value.
Essentially, the price of a bond goes up and down depending on the value of the income provided by its coupon payments relative to broader interest rates. If prevailing interest rates increase above the bond's coupon rate, the bond becomes less attractive.
The valuations of small-capitalization stocks in particular seem to already price in a recession. As for fixed income, we expect a strong bounce-back year to play out over the course of 2024. When bond yields are high, the income earned is often enough to offset most price fluctuations.
Short-term bond yields are high currently, but with the Federal Reserve poised to cut interest rates investors may want to consider longer-term bonds or bond funds. High-quality bond investments remain attractive.
We expect bond yields to decline in line with falling inflation and slower economic growth, but uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's policy moves will likely be a source of volatility. Nonetheless, we are optimistic that fixed income will deliver positive returns in 2024.
As with any free-market economy, bond prices are affected by supply and demand. Bonds are issued initially at par value, or $100. 1 In the secondary market, a bond's price can fluctuate. The most influential factors that affect a bond's price are yield, prevailing interest rates, and the bond's rating.
Most bonds pay a fixed interest rate that becomes more attractive if interest rates fall, driving up demand and the price of the bond. Conversely, if interest rates rise, investors will no longer prefer the lower fixed interest rate paid by a bond, resulting in a decline in its price.
If bond yields rise, existing bonds lose value. The change in bond values only relates to a bond's price on the open market, meaning if the bond is sold before maturity, the seller will obtain a higher or lower price for the bond compared to its face value, depending on current interest rates.
5. Strong demand should support bonds in 2024. I believe investors are going to shift an increasing amount of money to fixed income and more interest rate-sensitive assets in 2024 as the Fed has signaled an end to its hiking cycle.
The answer is both yes and no, depending on why you're investing. Investing in bonds when interest rates have peaked can yield higher returns. However, rising interest rates reward bond investors who reinvest their principal over time. It's hard to time the bond market.
What is the downside of bond funds?
The disadvantages of bond funds include higher management fees, the uncertainty created with tax bills, and exposure to interest rate changes.
When rates go up, bond prices typically go down, and when interest rates decline, bond prices typically rise. This is a fundamental principle of bond investing, which leaves investors exposed to interest rate risk—the risk that an investment's value will fluctuate due to changes in interest rates.
Interest rate changes are the primary culprit when bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) lose value. As interest rates rise, the prices of existing bonds fall, which impacts the value of the ETFs holding these assets.
So when rates are rising and you see the value of your bond fund decline, just remember that it's not all bad news. Through the power of dividend reinvestment and patient rebalancing, a diversified bond portfolio with average maturity will recover in just a few years and actually produce higher returns in the long run.
One key difference between individual bonds and bond funds is that with bond funds, there's no guarantee that you'll recover your principal at a specific time, particularly in a rising-rate environment.
In December, many investors welcomed the Federal Open Market Committee's unanimous decision to hold rates between 5.25% and 5.5% and signal some rate cuts in 2024. The Federal Reserve's so-called dot plot in December suggested a median fed funds rate of 4.6% in 2024, followed by 3.6% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026.
| Face Value | Purchase Amount | 30-Year Value (Purchased May 1990) |
|---|---|---|
| $50 Bond | $100 | $207.36 |
| $100 Bond | $200 | $414.72 |
| $500 Bond | $400 | $1,036.80 |
| $1,000 Bond | $800 | $2,073.60 |
The values of the underlying bonds adjust up and down as inflation rises and falls. TIPS typically yield 2% or less, lower than their I Bond peers. These low yields mean that TIPS face higher inflation risk than other bonds of similar maturity. Commodities funds offer another inflation hedge.
Bond funds allow you to buy or sell your fund shares each day. In addition, bond funds allow you to automatically reinvest income dividends and to make additional investments at any time. Most bond funds pay regular monthly income, although the amount may vary with market conditions.
Why interest rates affect bonds. Bond prices have an inverse relationship with interest rates. This means that when interest rates go up, bond prices go down and when interest rates go down, bond prices go up.
Can you lose money on bonds if held to maturity?
If interest rates rise the bond will lose value on the open market. But as the bond approaches maturity the market value of the bond will rise. On the day the bond reaches maturity it will be redeemed for face value. So in that sense you can not lose money.
Moore expects that prices of high-quality corporate bonds will recover strongly once the economy and inflation slow, and the Fed begins cutting rates to stimulate growth.
Bonds are typically longer, higher-risk investments that deliver greater returns and a predictable income. Bonds are also more liquid than CDs because you can buy or sell them on the secondary market—although some bonds may be harder to sell than others.
Inflation is a bond's worst enemy. Inflation erodes the purchasing power of a bond's future cash flows. Typically, bonds are fixed-rate investments. If inflation is increasing (or rising prices), the return on a bond is reduced in real terms, meaning adjusted for inflation.
But investors who sell a bond before it matures may get a far different amount. For example, if interest rates have risen since the bond was purchased, the bondholder may have to sell at a discount—below par. But if interest rates have fallen, the bondholder may be able to sell at a premium above par.
