What is the outlook for bond funds in 2024?
Yields to Trend Lower
Expecting another strong year in 2024
Following large front-loaded new issue supply, EM IG spreads are now at attractive levels versus U.S. credit, setting up EM debt for outperformance. Our 2024 macroeconomic base case features slowing inflation and growth cushioned by Fed rate cuts.
We expect nominal and real yields to fall over 2024, as central banks cut policy rates as inflation falls and/or if downside growth risks rise. US and selective other advanced economy government bond markets currently offer an attractive payoff and distribution of returns.
Wall Street analysts' consensus estimates predict 3.6% earnings growth and 3.5% revenue growth for S&P 500 companies in the first quarter. Analysts project full-year S&P 500 earnings growth of 11.0% in 2024, but analysts are more optimistic about some market sectors than others.
However, CDs, money market funds, government bonds, bond mutual funds and ETFs, and deferred fixed annuities, are all fixed-income investments that are considered less risky than stocks. In early 2024, U.S. Treasuries and some CDs offered yields in the 5% range.
As for fixed income, we expect a strong bounce-back year to play out over the course of 2024. When bond yields are high, the income earned is often enough to offset most price fluctuations. In fact, for the 10-year Treasury to deliver a negative return in 2024, the yield would have to rise to 5.3 percent.
Credit spreads remain very tight, and the yield you can earn when adjusted for duration favors high-quality intermediate bonds. So, investors are not really being paid to take on credit or interest rate risk.” Others have said that 2024 might be the time to invest toward the longer end of the risk-return spectrum.
In line with the outlook from other investment providers, the firm is forecasting a 5.7% gain in 2024 for U.S. investment-grade bonds, versus 4.9% last year and 2.3% in 2022.
Starting yields, potential rate cuts and a return to contrasting performance for stocks and bonds could mean an attractive environment for fixed income in 2024.
Yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury moved higher at the start of 2024 but are mostly holding between 4.20% and 4.30% now, well below earlier peaks of nearly 5%. Bonds in the current environment appear to offer investors more attractive long-term opportunities.
Will 2024 be a bull or bear market?
After a spectacular 2023, stocks are off to the races again in 2024. YTD, the Dow is up 2.72%, the S&P is up 7.28%, and the Nasdaq is up 6.41%. (And that's on top of last year's 13.7%, 24.2%, and 43.4% respectively.)
Large-cap stocks, such as those represented in the S&P 500 Index, are off to a solid start in 2024. Along with information technology and communication services stocks, other sectors such as financial, health care, industrial, and energy stocks are generating solid results.
The S&P 500 still has 30% upside between now and the end of 2025, according to Capital Economics. "Our end-2025 forecast of 6,500 for the index is premised on its valuation reaching a similar level to its peak during the dot com mania," Capital Economics said.
| Rank | Fund/Trust name | Percentage returns year to date* |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | WS Blue Whale Growth | 18.9% |
| 3 | Artemis US Extended Alpha | 17.2% |
| 4 | Invesco Global Focus | 17.0% |
| 5 | Artemis US Smaller Companies | 14.8% |
- High-yield savings accounts.
- Money market funds.
- Short-term certificates of deposit.
- Series I savings bonds.
- Treasury bills, notes, bonds and TIPS.
- Corporate bonds.
- Dividend-paying stocks.
- Preferred stocks.
Let's say you want to become a millionaire in five years. If you're starting from scratch, online millionaire calculators (which return a variety of results given the same inputs) estimate that you'll need to save anywhere from $13,000 to $15,500 a month and invest it wisely enough to earn an average of 10% a year.
Unless you are set on holding your bonds until maturity despite the upcoming availability of more lucrative options, a looming interest rate hike should be a clear sell signal.
High-quality bond investments remain attractive. With yields on investment-grade-rated1 bonds still near 15-year highs,2 we believe investors should continue to consider intermediate- and longer-term bonds to lock in those high yields.
When interest rates rise, bond fund and ETF prices tend to fall. But when interest rates begin to fall and bond prices rise, bond fund and ETF holders have the potential to benefit. There are a wide variety of funds and ETFs to choose from, depending on your time horizon and goals.
Infrastructure capital expenditure should accelerate in 2024, despite a higher cost of capital. Having held up well in 2022, global listed infrastructure underperformed global equities during 2023.
Will I bonds double in 20 years?
EE Bond and I Bond Differences
The interest rate on EE bonds is fixed for at least the first 20 years, while I bonds offer rates that are adjusted twice a year to protect from inflation. EE bonds offer a guaranteed return that doubles your investment if held for 20 years. There is no guaranteed return with I bonds.
U.S. stock returns: 2023 optimism carries forward
This heightened optimism is on par with the positive outlook in December 2021, when investors anticipated a 6% stock market return for 2022. Investor expectations for stock returns over the long run (defined as the next 10 years) rose slightly to 7.2%.
We expect bond yields to decline in line with falling inflation and slower economic growth, but uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's policy moves will likely be a source of volatility. Nonetheless, we are optimistic that fixed income will deliver positive returns in 2024.
Bond prices have an inverse relationship with interest rates. This means that when interest rates go up, bond prices go down and when interest rates go down, bond prices go up.
Moore expects that prices of high-quality corporate bonds will recover strongly once the economy and inflation slow, and the Fed begins cutting rates to stimulate growth.
